INSIGHT PAPER NO. 2 · NOVEMBER 2026 · 24 PAGES, FREE
The Electro-State: Brazil
From clean power to products the world will buy
Brazil runs on clean power, yet switched off a fifth of its wind and solar output in 2025. Our second paper, written with Amolion for CONIBEN, shows how to turn that surplus into exports.
86.8% renewable electricity, 2025
About 35 TWh switched off, 2025
6 changes, and who can make them
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FIVE FINDINGS
Brazil already has the clean power, but it sells crude and throws the surplus away.
1. Brazil is already an electro-state at home. Renewables supplied 86.8% of its domestic electricity in 2025, one of the highest shares of any large economy, against a world average of 33.8%.
2. But it is throwing power away. Volt Robotics estimates that about a fifth of potential wind and solar output, roughly 35 TWh, was curtailed in 2025, mostly in the Northeast.
3. It is a petrostate at the same time. Crude oil was Brazil's largest export in 2025, worth US$44.7bn, and the country still imports 88% of its fertiliser.
4. The value is in refining electrons and carbon. Green iron, ammonia, e-methanol, aviation fuel and computing turn surplus power into exports, and Brazil's ethanol mills offer about 27 Mt a year of biogenic CO₂. Yet none of the large hydrogen projects expected to commit in 2026 has reached a final investment decision.
5. The buyers are writing the rules now. Europe’s carbon price, fuel rules and border charge are already live, and the IMO is due to resume its shipping vote on 4 December. The constraint is turning projects into assets investors can finance at Brazilian interest rates.
IN NUMBERS
Plenty of clean power, much of it wasted, and projects still waiting for finance.
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY, 2025
86.8%
of Brazil's domestic electricity came from renewables, against a world average of 33.8%.
SWITCHED OFF, 2025
About 35 TWh
of wind and solar output curtailed, about a fifth of what could have been produced, on Volt Robotics’ estimate.
WAITING FOR FINANCE
R$64bn
of hydrogen projects expected to commit in 2026, none of them yet at a final investment decision.
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