INSIGHT PAPER NO. 1 · SEPTEMBER 2026 · 25 PAGES, FREE
The Electro-State
Scotland and the successor to the petrostate
Scotland exports clean power the way petrostates export oil, and pays to throw a third of its surplus away. Our first insight paper sets out how to keep more of the value at home.
20.8 TWh exported, 2025
10+ TWh switched off
6 changes, and who can make them
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FIVE FINDINGS
Scotland already exports power the way petrostates export oil. It keeps too little of the value.
1. The petrostate has a successor. China is called an electro-state because it runs more of its economy on power. There is a second kind: the country that exports clean power the way petrostates export oil. Scotland is becoming one.
2. Every joule of electricity counts for more. Electric technologies turn 68% of their energy into useful work, against 29% for combustion. The contest shifts from who sells the most fuel to who delivers heat, motion and light most cheaply.
3. Scotland is an electro-state, but a leaky one. In 2025 it exported 20.8 TWh, worth about £1.7bn, and switched off more than 10 TWh of wind it could not move.
4. The North Sea has been here before. Norway collected about $1.2 trillion from its oil and saved it; the UK collected $470bn and spent it. Wind is a flow, not a stock, so the choice can be made again.
5. The value is in refining the electron. Data centres, e-fuels and electrified industry turn surplus power into products, jobs and income. The constraint is getting these projects financed and owned in Scotland.
EXPORTED, 2025
20.8 TWh
of electricity sent from Scotland to the rest of Britain, worth about £1.7bn.
SWITCHED OFF, 2025
10+ TWh
of Scottish wind curtailed because the grid could not carry it.
UNSPENT
£659m of ScotWind option fees
A first deposit for a long-term transition fund that pays a community dividend. The paper sets out six changes to stop the waste and keep more of the value in Scotland, and who can make each one: the Scottish and UK Governments, public investors, local authorities and project developers.
Building a project that turns surplus power into value?
We help developers and investors reach the investment decision. Talk to us about what the Electro-State agenda means for your project.